Tag: Testing

Let’s act like we know what’s going on in testing: 2021 edition

Posted on by James Mackenzie

Pre-season testing is infamously hard to decipher and usually ends up in fans, pundits and the media jumping to conclusions that are, more often than not, totally wrong.

As you can see from this quiz, the car ending testing on top has very rarely proved to be on top when the lights go out for the opening race. And this year, more than ever before, there is very little to go on. Testing usually consists of two sets of three or four-day blocks but this year, thanks to the pandemic, the teams have had just three days to get to grips with their latest machines.

To compound matters further, conditions in Bahrain were very blustery and there was even a sandstorm…

Nonetheless, let’s see what we can figure out.

Not Plain Sailing for Mercedes

Image credit: Getty Images

Mercedes have often been accused of ‘sandbagging’ during testing – and that would certainly have been easy in the Sakhir sandstorm – but this year, things look a little different. They have never been a team that does glory runs, but they have always maintained their metronomic consistency in pounding out lap after lap without issue.

This test, however, started badly with a gearbox glitch limiting Valtteri Bottas to seven laps on the first morning. And when seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton got into the car, he struggled to keep it pointing in the right direction. A series of uncharacteristic spins – once even ending up beached in a gravel trap – demonstrated the lack of rear stability that currently blights the W12.

Mercedes have proven themselves especially adept at problem solving, though, and nobody would be surprised to see them lock out the front row in two weeks. After all, it is better to find these issues now than in Q1 at the first grand prix.

Red Bull on the Rise

The struggles over at the Silver Arrows garage give a little hope for a more competitive season in 2021 and, if they do falter, Red Bull appear well-positioned to capitalise.

Max Verstappen produced the fastest time of the test and the Red Bull appeared on rails barring one early half-spin for the Dutchman. With AlphaTauri also often near the top of the timesheets – rookie Yuki Tsunoda even finished the final day a little under a tenth off Verstappen’s headline time – perhaps the new Honda power unit has made a significant jump in performance.

Either way, Red Bull’s Achilles’ heel in recent years has been a lack of understanding of their car in the early part of the season so, if they are on top of it already, that bodes well for their title challenge. The experience of Sergio Pérez should also help to develop the car; an area in which their academy prospects of the last two years will have struggled.

The Battle for Best of the Rest

Behind the likely top two teams, it’s anybody’s guess. The midfield was incredibly close last year, with McLaren ultimately edging the battle for third in the Constructors’ Championship, just ahead of Racing Point and Renault.

In the three months since the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, those two names have ceased to be, with Racing Point transforming into Aston Martin and Renault becoming Alpine. Aston Martin were many experts’ choice for the bronze medal this year, thanks to their acquisition of the fabled 2020 Mercedes rear suspension and the expertise brought by four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel.

Things have not started smoothly for the British racing green team, however, with varying technical problems reducing their running time significantly. Vettel completed the fewest laps of any driver. Their ultimate pace is still an unknown, though, as they focused exclusively on long runs and propped up the timing sheets on the final day, three seconds slower than the rest of the field.

McLaren are looking strong with no issues from their change to Mercedes power and some decent flying lap times. They also have a somewhat controversial interpretation of the new diffuser regulations which has garnered much attention. It has not yet been banned by the FIA and, if allowed to remain, will not be easy for the other teams to copy.

Alpine also kept their true pace under wraps but showed impressive consistency and ended with a healthy number of laps completed. Fernando Alonso picked up where he left off in 2018 and didn’t appear to be suffering any ill effects from his cycling accident last month. Whilst there were a few niggles for Ferrari – Charles Leclerc brought about the first red flag of the test – they are fairly positive with their progress. Particularly in terms of straight line which was, by far, their largest issue in 2020. The Scuderia will be hopeful of, at the very least, moving up from their lowly sixth position in last year’s standings.

As mentioned, AlphaTauri have looked very strong throughout the test and tied with Alfa Romeo for most laps completed at 422. Veteran Kimi Räikkönen said, “I guess we are faster than at our best at the end of 2020, but whether that translates into a better performance in the races, that we will have to see.” It looks likely that Williams and Haas will be fighting over the wooden spoon but with the order from last year reversed. Particularly as Guenther Steiner confirmed there would be no updates to this year’s Haas.

Some Predictions I’ll Probably Regret Making

Okay, time to put my neck on the line, make some outrageous predictions and then see just how wrong I was in nine months’ time.

World Champion

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MAX VERSTAPPEN

I know, I know. All the smart money is on Hamilton to seal that record-breaking eighth title in a year where the regulations have changed a relatively small amount since a Mercedes domination. But I just have a gut feeling. Verstappen seems to be getting stronger and, as mentioned, the Red Bull start to the year was far smoother than that of Mercedes. So, why not? Maybe the changing of the guard will arrive one year early than expected…

Surprise Winner

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DANIEL RICCIARDO

2020 saw two shock victories from Pierre Gasly and Pérez. They were arguably the first surprise winners since Pastor Maldonado in 2012 but, with Ferrari now in the midfield, there are only four front-running cars and that increases the chance of someone sneaking in there when the leaders trip up. And who better than Daniel Ricciardo? He has that knack for capitalising when the chance is there and McLaren appear to be on an upward trajectory. Shoeys all round.

Surprise Podium

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NICO HÜLKENBERG

The Hulk appears to be the reserve driver for half of the grid at this point, after proving his ability to step into a car on short notice and produce an impressive performance three times last year. He has been linked with stand-in roles for Red Bull, Aston Martin, McLaren and even Mercedes. Whilst Verstappen has been controversially vaccinated against COVID-19, most of the grid still has not and it seems likely that somebody will be forced to miss at least one race at some point. Let the curse finally be broken.

Let’s act like we know what’s going on in testing: 2020 edition

Posted on by James Mackenzie

It’s that time of year again.

The teams have packed up in Barcelona and now prepare for the long haul to Melbourne for the season-opener. Meanwhile, the rest of us try to figure out who was ‘sandbagging’, who was doing ‘glory runs’, who’s worried about their reliability and who’s quietly confident.

Let me pose some questions.

A Few Worries for Mercedes?

Image credit: Getty Images

Mercedes continued their fine form from the first week of testing for the most part, but it wasn’t all plain sailing. Reigning world champion Lewis Hamilton missed most of the penultimate day after an oil pressure anomaly caused a precautionary shutdown of the power unit. There had been a couple of other more minor engine-related issues prior to that and Williams, who are an engine customer of Mercedes, had similar problems.

Could this be an Achilles heel for the six-time world champions? We’ve seen the impact having to run on reduced power has had on the team in the past; at high altitude and with high temperatures in Austria last year, they suffered with engine overheating and were not on the level of Ferrari or Red Bull. Have they pushed their new engine too far in trying to catch up to the possibly illegal (more on that later) power achieved by Ferrari last year? Time will tell. But at least they have discovered the issues now. Better in testing than in qualifying or the race in Melbourne.

You can be sure that they will leave no stone unturned back at Mercedes HQ and the Silver Arrows certainly still head into the season as the team to beat. But maybe this development will have given some hope to those in the two garages next door. Speaking of which…

Can Red Bull and/or Ferrari Really Challenge This Year?

Having kept their heads down for the first week of testing, the other two members of the ‘big three’ started to show their hand a little more as they entered the final couple of days.

Ferrari spent the first week insisting that they were in trouble, that they were not sandbagging and that they may well even be battling with the midfield this year. But there was always a hint of the-Italian-lady-doth-protest-too-much about it. And it could be seen from an impressively fast and consistent long run by Charles Leclerc on the final day that they have been keeping their true pace under wraps.

The car was still very slow on the straights, however. How much of that is down to conservative power modes and how much is due to their focus on increasing downforce levels in slower corners will probably only become apparent during Q3 in Australia.

After last year’s pre-season testing promised far more than the season ended up delivering for the Scuderia, they have been maybe too self-deprecating this time round.

Red Bull have taken a similarly reserved approach, with even the notoriously outspoken Dr Helmut Marko not producing anything especially headline worthy. They have been producing solid lap times throughout the test, however, and look like they could pose a real threat to Mercedes. Max Verstappen did suffer a surprisingly high number of spins which raised suspicions about whether the new car has issues with stability on corner entry. The Dutchman dismissed these rumours with talk of the weather conditions and “finding the car’s limits”.

If there is nothing substantial to those rumours then Red Bull are looking in pretty good shape to take the fight to the world champions. Verstappen’s fastest time was only half a second down on that of Valtteri Bottas – who achieved the best lap for Mercedes during the first week – and was completed on a harder tyre. Watch this space.

Who Will Be Best of the Rest?

Image credit: XPB Images

Assuming that Ferrari’s talk of being comparable with those in the midfield is simply a case of tempering expectations, the fight for fourth place and ‘best of the rest’ is looking mighty tight.

Racing Point have caused many a raised eyebrow with their new car thanks to its striking resemblance to last year’s Mercedes; particularly once it had gone nearly as fast as the championship-winning car. Their two drivers – Sergio Pérez and Lance Stroll – spent large periods of testing in the top three and Pérez struggled to hide his glee during every interview, describing this year’s challenger as “the best car I’ve had in pre-season“.

The more established heads of the midfield – McLaren and Renault – pride themselves on making all their own parts and will be very bitter if they are beaten by a “Pink Mercedes“. But it all seems quite logical when technical director Andrew Green says they simply “copied the quickest car from last year”. He also pointed out that they had not had the budget to do so in the past but, with Lawrence Stroll’s investment, they can now achieve great things. And, in fairness, this is a team that has perennially punched above its weight.

McLaren and Renault aren’t looking too bad themselves though.

Image credit: XPB Images

Last year’s ‘Formula 1.5‘ champions have produced another handsome papaya and blue machine which, whilst they don’t appear to have been doing glory runs, looks like it will be there or thereabouts come Melbourne. It has produced some impressive long runs and the team seem very content with their work so far.

Renault, after a very disappointing 2019, have seemingly ripped up their former blueprints and started from scratch. A visibly different car, with a far thinner (and uniquely rounded) nose and reprofiled sidepods and airbox, looks like it could propel them back to the front of the midfield. Daniel Ricciardo’s lap, which left him top of the timings on the penultimate day, looked fast and a lot of their last car’s issues seem to have been solved.

Whilst those three are the favourites to fight for fourth, the others are not far behind. AlphaTauri, Alfa Romeo, Haas and even Williams have looked to be in the mix at varying points throughout the two weeks and the general consensus is that the midfield, as a whole, has closed the gap to the top three.

Image credit: James Moy

All this makes for the prospect of some great racing in the final year of these regulations. And, whilst we all agree that the new regulations were necessary for the health of the sport, it is ironic that the best racing always seems to happen at the end of a set of regulations, once all the teams have figured out what works best, copied each other a fair bit, and the pack has levelled out.

A Couple of Other Points of Order

The two other pressing issues in the sport right now are the FIA ruling regarding Ferrari’s engine last year and, as with most of the world, the Coronavirus.

The FIA revealed on Friday – conveniently just as pre-season testing was concluding – that they had “reached a settlement” with Ferrari after a “thorough technical investigation” into last year’s engine but would be keeping the specifics of said settlement between the two parties.

The opacity and underhandedness of this decision has shocked and infuriated the other teams. The term “settlement” certainly appears to imply wrongdoing on Ferrari’s part but, if that is the case, then why such leniency? Especially considering that would mean the team were using an illegal engine for most of the season.

The announcement was clearly timed to avoid lots of talk in the paddock through testing but you can be sure that the teams will not have forgotten by Melbourne. The drama here is far from over as Ferrari’s competitors “consider their next steps”.

Barring some kind of mass protest by those teams, the Australian Grand Prix does, at least, look likely to go ahead…

Some of the others remain very much in the balance. The Chinese Grand Prix has inevitably been postponed – and it will be a challenge for them to find a spot in the calendar for it later in the year – whilst Bahrain and Vietnam especially are looking pretty iffy. Both Grands Prix are instigating special measures, including a 14-day quarantine on travellers from countries where outbreaks are the most severe. That includes Italy.

Obviously, Italy is the home of Ferrari, but also AlphaTauri, some members of Haas and tyre supplier Pirelli. Whilst authorities in Bahrain are planning an expedited process for F1 personnel, Vietnam’s arrangements are less concrete at this point. There would always likely have been teething problems for a country hosting its ever first Grand Prix and the Coronavirus outbreak will have made thing considerably harder for them.

Ross Brawn has said that a race would not be held in a country that denies access to any team to ensure that the competition remains fair. The irony there, considering the controversial FIA/Ferrari settlement, will likely not have been lost on the teams.

Let’s act like we know what’s going on in testing, pt. 2

Posted on by James Mackenzie

In this post I will, for the most part, stick with my modus operandi of not granting the 2019 F1 testing times too much significance. But it’s no fun to entirely ignore them so let’s allow ourselves to read a little into them, especially when it comes to the headline news of the front-runners.

Let me pose some questions.

So, Were Mercedes aCTUALLY Sandbagging Then?

The Mercedes cars did finally unleash a bit of speed but they left it until the final hour of the final day of testing. Ferrari had already packed up, after Sebastian Vettel was left stationary at turn two with an electrical failure an hour or so earlier. That quick run on the softest tyres left him just 0.003 seconds shy of Vettel’s test-topping time of 1:16.221 which, even by Formula 1 standards, is very close. Fuel-and-tyre-corrected lists have put the Ferrari around half a second ahead but I’m not totally convinced; the apparent differences between the tyre compounds always appear to be overestimated in my experience. And will the Silver Arrows still have their infamous ‘party mode’ once it comes to the serious business?

The Mercedes and Ferrari at F1 2019 testing.
The two teams have gone in noticeably different directions with their aero philosophies

From on-board footage, the Ferrari looks by far the easier of the two to drive – very balanced; equally happy in different corner types – and has done so since the first day of testing. An impressive feat with new regulations and a brand new car. My gut feeling is that Ferrari have the edge currently. Lewis Hamilton is unmatched when it comes to throwing a car round Albert Park on a Saturday, so he could well pull yet another pole out of nowhere, but I think by race day the red cars will be on top. One thing to bear in mind, though, is that Mercedes’ Achilles’ heel in recent years has been dealing with the dirty air when following another car. If the regulation changes have done their job, they may now be able to put up more of a fight when not in the lead. The rest of the season will be a story of who wins the development war and whether Ferrari can solves the operational issues that have plagued their last two championship campaigns. Of course, Helmut Marko would have you believe it will be Red Bull bringing the fight to Ferrari…which leads me nicely to my next point…

Where do Red Bull Stack Up?

Dr. Marko says a lot of things. And you get the impression a lot of them are just to stir things up – he’s quite similar to the ex-Godfather Bernie Ecclestone in that way. He has made a lot of ambitious claims of Red Bull’s impending success in the recent past which have not really come to fruition. But in fairness, this time round, the RB15 is looking pretty promising. It is a little harder to compare them with the other two of the ‘big three’ as they did not do any qualifying runs, but their long-run pace has been looking pretty good. Unfortunately, Pierre Gasly put paid to one of those on Thursday with a fairly hefty trip into the barriers. And it wasn’t his only one either. The young Frenchman will need to iron out those mistakes if he is to truly challenge Max Verstappen on the other side of the garage. He may be a year older than his teammate, but he has far less experience in the sport and the consensus seems to be that Verstappen has now added much-needed maturity to his undeniable speed.

Image credit: Getty Images

If my hand was forced, I would say I can see Red Bull matching up roughly where they did last season – nicking the odd win whilst also having some off days and a fair few retirements. Whilst their relationship with Honda has certainly started smoothly, Red Bull cars tend to ask a lot of their power units and I can see a few teething issues appearing once everything gets turned up to 11. Nonetheless, I think the Honda deal is a good move in the long-term and could see Red Bull as genuine championship contenders again given time.

How Close is the Midfield Battle?

Very. In a word. Renault, Haas, Toro Rosso, McLaren and Alfa Romeo all appear to be within a couple of tenths of each other, whilst Racing Point were openly running a very basic car for these tests, with many new parts coming for either Melbourne or the first of the European races – the return to Barcelona in May. With all the variables, I don’t think there is a lot of point in dissecting such similar times to try and figure out who is looking the favourite for 4th place. Just rest assured that the ‘Formula 1.5‘ championship, as it has been christened, looks like being even more closely fought than last season. And it seems they have all closed the gap to the front-runners a little, so we may see the odd podium position being stolen more often.

Image credit: Motorsport Images

That just leaves Williams, who are as off the pace as expected after their late arrival. The car has, commendably, not suffered any obvious issues and the team have amassed a fair amount of laps. But Robert Kubica admitted that he had not done a run longer than 15 laps so we will have to see how they deal with a full race distance in two weeks time. It is a real shame to see Williams just making up the numbers.

And Finally, How Quick Are the Cars in General?

This year’s regulation changes were expected to result in a drop in performance and a rise in lap times. But that hasn’t really happened. Whilst some of the lap time can be accounted for by, amongst other factors, more favourable conditions than at last year’s test, the headline time ended up just shy of a second quicker than last year’s. It would appear, as ever, that the brainboxes behind the scenes have found ways around the rules to exploit loopholes and make the air go in exactly the directions around the car they so choose. And they certainly have the potential to go much faster at this stage of development.

Overall, this season has the makings of a fantastic one. Let’s hope that’s still the case come Abu Dhabi in around 9 months time.

Let’s act like we know what’s going on in testing, pt. 1

Posted on by James Mackenzie

Every F1 publication will at this point deliver the usual caveat of pre-season testing times being unreliable, misleading and generally useless for forming opinions…and then proceed to do so anyway. In this post, I will attempt to stick to things that we can hopefully establish from this first week of 2019 F1 testing.

(And then maybe make some wild, sweeping statements and predictions at the end if I feel like it.)

McLaren’s Reliability Has Improved

I think that is fair to say. McLaren have spent the pre-season tests of the last few years in varying levels of crisis. Infamously so with Honda, completing only 425 laps in 2017 and 380 in 2015 whilst generally blowing up every time they left the garage. Fernando Alonso covered almost as many miles on foot as he did in the MP4-30. And then even with Renault last year things weren’t much better. A wheel fell off after literally 6 laps… Whilst things had then started to look more promising to the outside world, the team knew that their times were flattering to deceive and that their lofty aims of returning to the podium were not to be realised. And that maybe it hadn’t been Honda’s fault all along…

Lando Norris at 2019 F1 testing.
Image credit: DPA Picture Alliance

But this year things have been going far more smoothly. They have been quietly getting on with things – under the radar, running through programs without the need to chuck on the softest tyres and jump up higher in the timings than is representative – and have finished the week without any major dramas, solidly in the midfield when it comes to laps completed.

The team abandoned development on last year’s car early on in order to focus on this year’s and thus have far more stable foundations to build from than some of the other teams. The paddock has apparently been impressed by some of their aero ideas. Zak Brown has realistic aims of a ‘step forward’ and it’s looking like that may well have been achieved.

Alfa Romeo Have Improved Massively Since Last Year

Whilst the steady improvement of the Alfa Romeo Sauber was clear to see through last season, the difference between this and last year’s testing times is quite something.

They are very nearly five seconds better off. In cars that were supposed to be around a couple of seconds slower after these regulation changes, remember? Admittedly, the track had been resurfaced last year and conditions were far colder, hence the improvement from all teams, but the Alfa has clearly taken the biggest step. Having been scraping together pennies just a couple of years ago, the team now has enough of a budget to make one-off Valentine’s Day liveries and hire a former world champion. It will be interesting to see where they can push on to from here.

I get the impression Ferrari have somewhat shunned Haas as their little sister team in favour of Alfa Romeo and you wonder if that might have a similar adverse effect on the American team as it is a positive one on the Italians. Haas were the surprise package of 2018 and many in the paddock were suspicious of their relationship with Ferrari. But with those at Maranello now less reliant on them, will they revert to the also-rans that joined the sport in 2016?

Teams Have Gone In Different Directions With the New Front Wings

The main aim of the new regulations was to aid cars in following each other closely and to help produce better wheel-to-wheel racing. But also to potentially mix up the pack a bit. And whilst the effectiveness of the former is certainly still up for debate, the latter appears to have worked. The teams have gone with visibly different approaches.

The Mercedes front wing is the only to have its endplates angled inwards. They and Ferrari have gone in highly different directions, which is often the case, and time will tell which of them has got it right. For the moment, with Ferrari and Alfa Romeo performing very well at the first test, it is looking more likely to be their philosophy that is the way to go. If that is the case, then will Mercedes (and some of the others) concede defeat and attempt to fit a Ferrari-style wing to their car? History has often proven that just whacking on someone else’s car part isn’t very effective…

Williams Are Somewhat in Trouble

This once legendary team are struggling. They were reduced to a day and a half of shakedown drives as they tried to get to know their new car. Whilst British rookie George Russell appeared excited just to be part of it all, Robert Kubica, who has been there and done it with established teams in the past, appeared visibly frustrated already. And that coming from a man who has finally achieved his incredible goal of returning to the sport after suffering life-changing injuries eight years ago. There are rumours circulating of unrest within the team and questions being asked of Paddy Lowe – the man brought in from all-conquering Mercedes to restore the plucky British team to their once-obligatory place near the front of the grid.

I will say that the times laid down by Russell and Kubica were really not bad considering how far behind the others they started this week. I hope there is more to come from the car as it would be a real waste of a promising, young Brit (and reigning F2 champion) and a walking fairy-tale to be circulating at the back of the field, slowing down for blue flags all year.

And Finally, a couple of Wild Predictions

Because, why not?

  • The Alonso Curse to take full effect and McLaren to dominate the championship, wrapping up both titles by Hungary.
  • Max Verstappen and Pierre Gasly to get into a full-blown fistfight that gets Gasly demoted back to Toro Rosso and Daniil Kvyat reinstated to Red Bull, who then proceeds to wipe the floor with Max and reduce Helmut Marko to a quivering mess.

See you for week two!