The hunter becomes the hunted.
Max Verstappen and Red Bull bested their title rivals in a strategic rollercoaster at the French Grand Prix.
Paul Ricard had historically been a Mercedes track – Lewis Hamilton comfortably winning both races since it returned to the calendar in 2018 – but Red Bull were immediately on the front foot this weekend.
Mercedes, and Hamilton in particular, once again struggled to find a setup for their car. But the World Champion did what he so often does and produced the goods when it really mattered to join Verstappen on the front row.
And that front row soon became the lead when Verstappen was caught out by a tailwind into the first corner; the Dutchman running wide and handing the advantage to his rival.
Hamilton held that lead through the first stint and had extended his advantage to around three seconds when Mercedes triggered the front-running pit stops by bringing in Valtteri Bottas. Red Bull responded a lap later to protect against the undercut but Mercedes, crucially, left Hamilton out.
When car number 44 stopped on the next lap, it became evident that the Mercedes strategists had severely underestimated the power of the undercut. Verstappen swept by into the first corner with the helpless Hamilton left frustrated as his team apologised over the radio, saying they “didn’t really know what had happened there”.
Hamilton channelled his frustration into an immediate attack. The Mercedes pair stalked Verstappen, following within two seconds in an attempt to force him to use up his tyres. It worked, but it ultimately forced Red Bull into a race-winning call.
Wary of another situation like Spain this year or Hungary 2019, Red Bull decided to make what Team Principal Christian Horner later described as a “ballsy call” to pit Verstappen from the lead. The Dutchman emerged with an 18-second gap to chase down in 20 laps.
But chase them down he did. The gap initially reduced at a rate of two seconds per lap, and Bottas failed to slow him down on tyres which were now well past their best. But Hamilton had done his trademark tyre whispering and for a brief moment the gap appeared to be holding steady at around five seconds as they navigated through backmarkers.
Once in clear air, however, Verstappen upped his speed and Hamilton was once again helpless as the Red Bull dived to his inside to reclaim the lead with a little over a lap remaining. A crucial 14-point swing in the drivers’ standings which leaves the Dutchman with a healthy lead heading to Red Bull’s home track in Spielberg.
Behind the leading pair, Sergio Pérez had been easier on his tyres and passed Bottas for the final spot on the podium. The McLarens had also shown excellent race pace to move up to fifth and sixth, Lando Norris leading home Daniel Ricciardo on a far stronger weekend for the Honey Badger.
Pierre Gasly continued his strong form to finish seventh at his home grand prix, with Fernando Alonso and the Aston Martins of Sebastian Vettel and Lance Stroll completing the top 10.
It was a shocking day for the Scuderia as the red cars fell from fifth and seventh on the grid to finish outside the points in 11th and 16th. Ferrari got their strategy all wrong and have now lost third in the standings to McLaren.
More Mercedes Mistakes
Speaking of strategy… The Mercedes strategists are on a horrible run of form.
First, they undercut when they should have overcut in Monaco. That lost Hamilton two places on a circuit where strategy is of the utmost importance and condemned him to seventh place. In Azerbaijan, another undercut and a sluggish pit stop saw Hamilton fall from first to third. And now, in Le Castellet, they were mugged twice by a far sharper Red Bull team.
The power of the undercut was evident. Before the front-runners had pit, Ricciardo undercut both Gasly and Carlos Sainz when his team had only been attempting to jump the former. But Mercedes inexplicably chose to leave their leading man out for an extra lap, overly confident in his three-second cushion.
And to what end? Tyres which were one lap younger than those of Verstappen?
Once the first mistake had been made, there was still a chance to make amends. The other thing that had been clear to see during the race was that tyre degradation was far higher than expected. But it was again Red Bull who reacted more quickly, bringing in Verstappen and forcing Mercedes to attempt to make it to the end. The usually cool Bottas vented his frustration over the radio that his pleas for a two-stop had been ignored.
Is this just a few bad races, or is Mercedes’ strategy actually the most significant chink in their armour?
For years, the seven-time World Champions have been described as a well-oiled machine, but their superiority over the field has often masked their strategic deficiencies. It doesn’t particularly matter when you mess up if the only competition is your other car…
In a genuine title battle, they have been exposed before.
During their fight with Ferrari in 2018, there were numerous mistakes. They miscalculated the VSC delta in Australia, losing Hamilton a win. In China, they failed to pit him under a Safety Car. The same thing happened in Austria. They kept him out too long at the US Grand Prix and handed Kimi Räikkönen a win. The list goes on.
Even in such a dominant march to the title as 2020, there were many operational errors. Be it failing to see that the pit lane was closed in Italy, advising Hamilton he could do a practice start in the wrong place in Russia, or the pit stop debacle in Sakhir.
Red Bull, on the other hand, come across as ruthlessly efficient at the moment. And they also appear to have the slightly faster car.
So, if Mercedes want to stand a chance of winning either title this year, they will have to make sure these issues are ironed out sharpish. Even with Hamilton to occasionally flatter their decisions.
The French Grand Prix in 60 Seconds
Answering the Burning Questions
Can Mercedes recover from two tough weekends? It was better, but Red Bull completed their hat-trick nonethless.
Will we see any more tyre dramas? No explosions thankfully, but the degradation spiced things up.
Will the new wing tests have a noticeable effect on the competitive order? Not really. That whole drama has basically been forgotten about already.
